Research & Notes
The InvestLab Blog
Research, strategy deep dives and market notes — written by the person who runs the strategies, with the live numbers embedded.
Research & deep dives
How InvestLab's Strategies Performed in September + Their Exact Weights for October
What worked, what didn't, and exactly how Lean All-Weather, Dual Momentum Pivot5 and Adaptive Hedge are positioned now.
A Cheaper Way to Hedge Bear Markets, Built for European Investors
How to run Adaptive Hedge, the monthly strategy that rotates into the strongest defensive assets, with funds you can actually buy in Europe.
Adaptive Hedge: A Cheaper Way to Survive the Next Bear Market
A rules-based hedging strategy that gained 39% through the Global Financial Crisis and 32% through the dot-com bust — a deep dive into what worked, what didn’t, and why.
Dual Momentum Pivot5 — 15% Vol
The same monthly trend engine as Dual Momentum Pivot5, with one change: instead of equal slices it weights its holdings by risk and then scales the whole portfolio toward a 15% volatility target, borrowing up to 2× when the underlying mix is too calm to reach it on its own.
Lean All-Weather (Unlevered)
Global stocks, long Treasuries, gold, and broad commodities — a deliberately balanced split, rebalanced quarterly.
Lean Aggressive
Lean equity-heavy: 70% global stocks with bond, gold, and commodity ballast — rebalanced once a year.
Balanced Trend-Filtered
A fixed, equal-weight balanced portfolio of six asset-class ETFs — with one overlay: each month it switches any sleeve whose own trend has turned down into cash, and switches it back on when the trend recovers. The point isn't to beat stocks — it's closer to insurance: you ride…
Lean Balanced
Global stocks, long Treasuries, gold, and broad commodities — rebalanced once a year.
Relative Momentum Top5
Nine asset-class ETFs, three rules. Each month it holds the five that are trending strongest — and *always* holds five, with no cash brake — so the portfolio is permanently invested in whatever is leading.
How InvestLab's Strategies Performed in July — and How They're Positioned for August
Tech cracked, bonds failed to protect — but both our core portfolio and tactical asset allocation strategies finished in the green.
The Levered All-Weather Portfolio, Rebuilt for DIY Investors
A simple four-ETF (or futures) strategy that uses moderate leverage to target stock-like returns - while working in far more environments than stocks alone.
Choosing Your Strategic Asset Allocation — Part 1: What Are Your Options?
Your strategic asset allocation is the keel of the boat — the single decision that drives most of your investing experience. Here's the menu, from 100% equities to a full all-weather mix, and what each one really signs you up for.
Dual Momentum Pivot5: the deep dive
The full guide to InvestLab’s tactical momentum strategy. Each month it ranks nine asset-class ETFs by trend, holds the five strongest, and steps into cash when trends turn down. Why a tactical layer, how it’s built, 35 years of evidence, why it works, when it fails, and whether it’s right for you.
Building Your Investment Policy Statement (IPS)
There's no universally "best" portfolio — only the one most likely to get you to your goals. Before picking a single investment, you need an Investment Policy Statement: five decisions that anchor everything that follows. Here's the one-page version I use myself.
InvestLab's Process
Risk isn't volatility — it's the chance you don't meet your investment goals. Everything in InvestLab exists to shrink that probability. Here's the three-layer process I landed on after fifteen years working the same question.