The weekly read — Week of Sep 18 – Sep 25, 2026

Week of Sep 18 – Sep 25, 2026

The take

Commodities powered the year's gains; the four-week window told a different story. This week broad indices gave up ground as long-dated Treasuries sold off and tech names rallied sharply while oil paused its climb. Dual-momentum strategies stayed up by rotating into emerging markets and commodities over the past month, even as single-week returns compressed.

The week at a glance

• This week — Tech surged while Treasuries slumped; momentum strategies lagged behind AI-driven gains
• Past 4 weeks — Commodities climbed 5.9% as diplomatic hopes trimmed oil's peak; momentum captured the move
• Year-to-date — Commodities up 46% define the year; dual-momentum sits at 14% behind tech's 37% run

This week: tech bounced hard while bonds sold off and oil dropped on Iran talks

US and Iranian negotiators explored a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sparking hope for some sort of peace deal that sticks. Oil fell 0.9% for the week. Meanwhile tech rallied with the Nasdaq closing at a record high, up 3.3%, and shares of Intel popped 12% while AMD added about 10%. The S&P 500 gained 1.3%. Long-dated Treasuries (TLT) dropped 2.4% as yields climbed. The momentum strategies—Dual Momentum TAA and Relative Momentum—gained only 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, holding equal-weighted sleeves of emerging markets, developed ex-US equities, and commodities. That structure left them underweight tech at the worst possible moment: tech gained 3.6%, communication services rose 2.3%, but DBC fell 0.9% and gold dropped 1.9%.

Past 4 weeks: commodities climbed while bonds tumbled and equities chopped

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on September 16, its first increase since 2023, and updated projections point to the possibility of another rate increase this year. Long Treasuries sold off 3.9%. The S&P 500 edged up 0.5%. Commodities (DBC) surged 5.9%. Crude prices rose by $7.61/bbl to an average of $91.00/bbl in August, before surging to $113.48/bbl on September 9. Over the four-week window the Dual Momentum TAA strategy returned 1.9%, powered by equal allocations to DBC, emerging markets, and developed ex-US equities. That 1.9% came almost entirely from commodities; VEA dropped 1.4% and EEM rose just 1.3%. Momentum strategies—which shift exposure into whichever assets are trending strongest—captured the commodity rally cleanly, adding 207 basis points from DBC alone.

Year-to-date: the commodity supply shock still defines 2026 returns

Commodities are up 46% year-to-date; emerging markets 25%; the S&P 500 14%; long Treasuries down 6%. Dual Momentum TAA is up 14.1%, Relative Momentum 14.1%, and Balanced Trend-Filtered 14.3%. Tech (XLK) is up 37%. The Lean Balanced SAA returned 11.1%, held back by its 25% allocation to TLT. The model portfolios do not hold a dedicated tech sleeve; most readers do. For portfolios tilted toward US large-cap growth, 2026's story split in two: energy shortages lifted commodities and emerging producers while AI euphoria powered mega-cap platforms—and the gap between those narratives is the gap between strategy returns. The Nasdaq-100 gained 21.6% year-to-date versus the S&P 500's 14.0%.

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Sources: TradingEconomics · CNBC · Yahoo Finance · Reuters