The weekly read — Week of Sep 04 – Sep 11, 2026

Week of Sep 04 – Sep 11, 2026

The take

Oil's surge past $100 on Middle East supply risk carried commodities to a 48% gain this year, helping diversified strategies outpace global equities despite bond headwinds. Over the past four weeks, DBC jumped 10.5% while emerging markets added 1.8%. Year-to-date, commodity-tilted All-Weather and momentum portfolios sit 13–17% ahead, with bonds still negative.

The week at a glance

• This week — Oil spiked 4%, bonds down 1.6%, stocks flat — rotation favoured energy-tilted sleeves.
• Past 4 weeks — Commodities rallied 10.5%; momentum strategies captured it; tech underperformed.
• Year-to-date — Lean All-Weather 15% Vol up 17.7%; global stocks 14.1%; tactical tilts drove the gap.

This week: oil surged on Iran shipping strikes, bonds tumbled, equities trod water

Brent oil spiked above $108 a barrel before closing Thursday up 6%; West Texas Intermediate topped $102 for the first time since May. Strikes in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted traffic, lifting DBC 3.95%. Long-duration Treasuries fell 1.63% as the 10-year yield climbed, weighing on bonds. Broad equity indices dipped modestly — SPY down 0.77%, VEA down 1.45% — while QQQ edged up 0.21% and XLK posted 0.21%. Commodity-heavy sleeves absorbed oil's move; bond-heavy portfolios gave back gains, but equity exposure stayed contained to low single digits.

Past 4 weeks: a commodity rally met by tech's pullback

Traders have been rattled by shipping attacks around the Strait of Hormuz; both the US and Iran are bracing for a long war, fanning renewed fears of energy-driven inflation. DBC rallied 10.53%, while emerging markets added 1.85% and developed ex-US equity slipped 1.21%. SPY dropped 1.55%, QQQ fell 2.21%, and long Treasuries declined 1.05%. The Dual Momentum Pivot5 strategy — which held top-ranked assets — returned 0.88%, and Lean All-Weather 15% Vol gained 2.13%; Lean 60/40 gave up 1.28%. Momentum strategies that rotated into commodities early captured the rally, while static allocations to tech or bonds lagged the month's energy surge.

Year-to-date: the commodity supply shock still defines the year

Over the past month, crude oil's price has risen 23.21%, and is up 63.65% compared to the same time last year. DBC is up 48.3% for the year, EEM 24.6%, and VEA 17.2%; long Treasuries are down 4.4%, and gold flat at 0.62%. Global equities (VT) stand at 14.1%, while SPY posted 12.67% and QQQ 16.65%. Lean All-Weather 15% Vol leads at 17.7%, followed by Dual Momentum Pivot5 at 16.1% and Relative Momentum TAA at 18.5%; Lean 60/40 returned 6.6%. Tech (XLK) jumped 30.7%, but the broad market held closer to mid-teens. Portfolios that tactically allocated to commodities or held structural commodity tilts captured the year's dominant macro theme; fixed-income exposure remained a drag through September.

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Sources: Bloomberg · Trading Economics · Al Jazeera · Forbes