The weekly read — Week of Sep 11 – Sep 18, 2026

Week of Sep 11 – Sep 18, 2026

The take

Commodities saved the year-to-date story: DBC returned 47% in 2026, lifting every strategy that held it. This week oil pulled back and gold fell 5%, while tech rallied—QQQ up 0.92%. Over the past four weeks oil surged above $100 on Middle East supply fears before easing. The year remains defined by the supply shock.

The week at a glance

• This week — Oil eased and gold fell 5% on Fed hike bets; tech rallied, up 0.92%.
• Past 4 weeks — Commodities surged 5–6% on Middle East tensions; gold dropped sharply on rising yields.
• Year-to-date — DBC returned 47%; the commodity supply shock defines every YTD figure.

This week: oil pulled back as bond yields steadied and tech led a modest rally

Oil had climbed above $104 a barrel earlier in September before dropping as the supply-driven rally looked overdone. This week WTI gave back 0.69% and Brent eased, while gold fell almost 6% over three sessions to a two-week low as global bond yields climbed and the dollar strengthened. Most readers hold tech—which the strategies don't—and this week that exposure paid off: QQQ gained 0.92% while XLK added 1.03%. Stocks rallied Thursday as bond yields eased and big tech companies led the advance; the Nasdaq composite closed 1.4% higher. The week's behavior shows what happens when geopolitical risk premium fades: the commodity sleeve and long-duration bonds both lost ground, while growth equities recaptured attention.

Past 4 weeks: commodities surged on Middle East supply shocks, gold sold off on rate-hike fears

Oil extended a powerful rally above $100 following escalating Middle East hostilities that stoked fears of deeper supply disruptions; Iran and the US are digging in for a protracted conflict. DBC returned 5.34% over the four weeks. But gold moved the other way: bullion held a decline as Middle East attacks and a global bond selloff ratcheted up bets the Fed may need to raise rates to rein in inflation; Fed Chair Kevin Warsh doubled down on his vow to fight inflation. GLD fell 5.24% over the month. Commodities and inflation hedges split sharply—oil rallied on supply, gold sold off on yield—illustrating that even inflation assets can diverge when the driver is geopolitical rather than monetary.

Year-to-date: the commodity supply shock still defines the year, lifting every strategy that held DBC

DBC returned 47.27% year-to-date. EEM added 23.16%, VEA 15.34%, SPY 12.57%. The portfolios that allocated to commodities—Lean Balanced, All-Weather, and the momentum strategies—captured most of that move. Lean Balanced returned 11.56% YTD thanks to a 625-bp contribution from DBC. Dual Momentum Pivot5 delivered 15.44% with an 830-bp lift from DBC alone. TLT lost 3.92%, subtracting from every strategy that held long-duration bonds. The 2026 storyline is simple: commodities surged on geopolitical supply shocks, EM and developed-ex-US equities followed at a distance, and long bonds dragged—strategies that tilted into the supply-shock beneficiaries won the year.

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Sources: Bloomberg · CBS News · MINING.COM · Yahoo Finance · Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette · CNBC