The weekly read — Week of Oct 02 – Oct 09, 2026

Week of Oct 02 – Oct 09, 2026

The take

The year still belongs to commodities — DBC is up 47% and has carried every portfolio with exposure. This week the S&P 500 added 1.16% on tech strength, while developed ex-US equities dropped 1.1%. Over four weeks, gold and long-duration bonds each fell more than 3%, yet U.S. equities climbed 2.1%.

The week at a glance

• This week — U.S. equities climbed 1.16%, while developed ex-US fell 1.1% and emerging markets dropped 1.29%.
• Past 4 weeks — Gold and long Treasuries sold off 3–3.6% each; U.S. equities rose 2.1%.
• Year-to-date — Commodity exposure delivered 636 bps to Lean Balanced; SPY is up 15%, DBC up 47%.

This week: a broad tech rally lifted U.S. equities while developed ex-US and EM equities sold off

The S&P 500 closed above 7,800 for the first time on October 6, driven by gains in technology stocks. SPY gained 1.16%; Marvell Technology popped 5.8% and Advanced Micro Devices gained nearly 3%, while Broadcom advanced 3.7%. In contrast, VEA (FTSE Developed ex-US — Europe, Japan, Pacific, Canada) fell 1.1%, and EEM (MSCI Emerging Markets) dropped 1.29%. The grounding's market_context sleeve tells an even sharper story: QQQ gained 0.23% while XLK fell 0.52% and XLC gained just 0.05% — communication services and some tech sleeves lagged. Commodities and the dollar hedges outpaced U.S. equities: DBC rose 1.29%, and UUP added 0.45%, while TLT and gold gained 0.65% and 1.17%.

Past 4 weeks: gold and long Treasuries each shed more than 3%, while U.S. equities climbed 2.1%

The yield on the 10-year note finished October 9, 2026 at 5.24% while the 2-year note ended at 4.80%. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond rose to 5.63% on October 9, marking a 0.26 point increase over the past month. TLT fell 3.19% in the four-week window, while gold dropped 3.56%. U.S. equities ignored the bond selloff: SPY gained 2.12%. Developed ex-US (VEA) fell 2.98%, and emerging markets (EEM) shed 1.53%. Over the four weeks, QQQ surged 5.2% — outpacing SPY by three percentage points — while XLK rose 6.04%, showing the tech rally was concentrated in growth and semiconductor names.

Year-to-date: DBC's 47% return has carried every portfolio with commodity exposure

Crude Oil's price has fallen 10.78% over the past month, but it is still 55.23% higher than a year ago. DBC has returned 47.4% year-to-date — more than triple SPY's 15.1%. EEM is up 22.7%, and VEA has gained 13.7%. Long Treasuries (TLT) are down 7.4%, and gold has slipped 3.0%. Lean Balanced's 13.4% DBC allocation contributed 637 basis points — over 60% of the portfolio's 10.2% YTD return. The Dual Momentum TAA strategy, which holds a third in DBC, returned 13.9%. The Adaptive Hedge strategy — a defensive overlay that holds DBC and UUP — is up 3.8%, with DBC contributing 2,383 bps and the dollar leg (UUP, up 7.4%) adding 366 bps. Commodities have outperformed every traditional asset class in 2026, and that single sleeve explains the difference between the strategies that kept up with global equities and those that lagged.

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Sources: CNBC · Bloomberg · TradingEconomics · Fortune · ETF Trends