The weekly read — Week of Aug 28 – Sep 04, 2026

Week of Aug 28 – Sep 04, 2026

The take

The year remains a commodity story: broad baskets are up 43% through early September, led by oil's 8% surge this week on US-Iran hostilities. The past four weeks saw emerging markets—lifted by 3.4% gains in August on tech and AI earnings—add another 4.7% while US tech gave back 0.4%. Strategies holding commodities contributed 10 percentage points to four-week returns, with DBC alone adding roughly 130–230 basis points across portfolios; strategies without that exposure lagged sharply.

The week at a glance

• This week — Oil surged 8%; developed-ex-US equities rose 1%; US large-cap and tech were flat to slightly positive.
• Past 4 weeks — Commodities rose 10%; EM equities gained 4.7%; US large-cap and tech both declined.
• Year-to-date — Commodities lead at +43%; emerging markets +26%; developed ex-US +19%; US tech +30%; S&P 500 +14%.

This week: oil jumped 8% as Hormuz tensions spiked, while EM and developed ex-US equities rose and US stocks stayed flat

Brent traded near $95 per barrel on Friday and was on track for an 8% weekly gain, underpinned by renewed US-Iran hostilities and Strait of Hormuz shipping uncertainty following fresh American strikes. That spike drove broad commodity futures (DBC) up 3.6% for the week and powered portfolios holding commodities: the Lean All-Weather 15% Vol strategy, with 36% in DBC, returned 0.91%. Emerging markets climbed 2.3% and developed ex-US equities rose 1.0%, extending gains driven by technology earnings—particularly TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix, up 53%, 150% and 200% year-to-date. The S&P 500 added just 0.11% while Nasdaq declined 0.5–0.8% through late August as chip stocks pulled back; QQQ bounced 0.35% this week. Commodities' strength and EM's resilience drove active-allocation strategies ahead of US large-cap while the classic 60/40 posted just 0.11%, starved of the commodity leg that carried the year.

Past 4 weeks: commodities climbed 10% on Middle East risk; EM equities gained 4.7% on AI momentum; US tech dipped 0.4%

Oil prices rose 19–21% over the past month, up 45–47% year-over-year, as tensions flared and six vessels transited Hormuz on Wednesday versus a 10-day average of thirteen. Broad commodity futures gained 10.3%, lifting strategies with exposure: DBC contributed 131–235 basis points to four-week returns across portfolios. Emerging markets rose 4.7% in the period, extending August's 3.4% gain on strong tech earnings; developed ex-US equities added 1.2%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% while Nasdaq fell 0.6%, pressured by declines in chip stocks—Micron shed 5.8%, AMD and Broadcom more than 3% and 2%—and the semiconductor ETF sliding 2.7%. Gold rose 2.1%. The four-week window underscored the power of commodity and EM allocation: strategies holding both delivered 2.0–5.3%, whereas classic 60/40 managed just 0.05% and pure global equity 0.27%.

Year-to-date: the commodity supply shock still defines 2026, with DBC up 43%, EM up 26% and tech up 30%, leaving balanced strategies ahead of pure equity

Commodities have been one of 2026's strongest asset classes; crude oil has driven the year's biggest gains and broad futures baskets that lean on energy have followed higher. DBC has returned 42.7% year-to-date; gold is up 2.6% and US long bonds are down 2.8%. Emerging markets are staging a powerful comeback, decisively outperforming US equities; the MSCI EM index climbed 16% in the first four months versus the S&P 500's almost 5% gain. The S&P 500 has delivered 13.5% while US technology (XLK) rose 30.4%. Developed ex-US equities returned 18.9%. Those spreads explain the year's performance dispersion: Lean All-Weather 15% Vol—36% in DBC, 27% in gold, 40% in SPY and 51% in bonds—is up 18.0%, while Dual Momentum Pivot5 15% Vol, with similar commodity exposure, returned 21.0%. Classic 60/40 has delivered 8.0% and pure global equity 15.3%. The strategies that allocated to commodities and emerging markets early in the year captured a structural shift; those that didn't sat on single-digit returns despite a 30% rally in US tech and mid-teens gains in global equity.

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Sources: Bloomberg · Euronews · CNBC · J.P. Morgan Asset Management