The weekly read — Week of Jul 24 – Jul 31, 2026

Week of Jul 24 – Jul 31, 2026

The take

Commodities surged 10.8% over the month on a fragile US-Iran MOU, while a late-month tech selloff wiped 6.6% off Nasdaq. The S&P 500 finished July nearly flat at +0.03%, masking sector rotation beneath. Emerging-market equity rallied 17.8% year-to-date, then gave back ground as Asian chipmakers plunged. Most model portfolios posted small weekly gains from broad equity strength, but July itself was defined by a single commodity spike offsetting bond and tech losses.

The week at a glance

• This week — Equities rose 1% while commodities fell 2%; bonds subtracted 1% in most sleeves.
• Past 4 weeks — Commodities rallied 10.8% on fragile ceasefire; bonds lost 3.8% and emerging-market chipmakers sank.
• Year-to-date — Commodities lead at +31.7%, emerging equity +17.8%, bonds down; portfolios cluster 5–12%.

This week: equities advanced but commodities retreated, bonds dragged most portfolios

Global equity advanced — developed ex-US up 1.31%, emerging markets up 1.2%, the S&P 500 up 1.1% — while commodities tumbled 2.16% and long Treasuries fell 1.2%. That mix left most model portfolios near flat; Lean Balanced gained 0.02%, while the commodity-heavy All-Weather strategies lost half a percent. Nasdaq gained only 0.55% as a late-week tech selloff erased earlier optimism; communication services jumped 1.83%. Dual Momentum Pivot5 fell 0.18% because real estate and commodities both shed roughly 2%, offsetting the equity gains.

Past 4 weeks: a commodity spike fueled by Middle East ceasefire hopes defined the month

A fragile US-Iran memorandum of understanding eased supply fears and allowed trade to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, driving broad commodities 10.8% higher over four weeks. Long Treasuries fell 3.8% in the same window. Emerging-market stocks plunged for a second straight day, with the benchmark gauge sinking to a three-and-a-half month low as a rout in Asian chip stocks deepened; the MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.4%, taking its two-day drop to 5%. The commodity surge pushed Dual Momentum Pivot5 up 1.9% for the month, while the 60/40 lost 1.6% and Balanced fell 0.29%; bond exposure hurt most static portfolios.

Year-to-date: commodities and emerging equity lead; tech volatility dominated July, but the S&P 500 is up 10%

Commodities remain the year's strongest asset, up 31.7%, followed by emerging equity at 17.8% and developed ex-US at 13.8%. The S&P 500 has gained 10.1% despite July turbulence. US technology stocks were set to slump, tracking a rout in global semiconductor shares as concerns over artificial intelligence spending were compounded by rising competition from China. Nasdaq sits 12.3% higher year-to-date but lost 6.6% in July alone. Dual Momentum Pivot5 leads the models at 12.0%; Lean Balanced delivered 8.1%, while the unlevered All-Weather returned 7.8% — each reflecting its commodity and equity allocation. Long bonds remain the drag: TLT down 3.5%, gold down 6.3%.

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Sources: S&P Global · IEA · Bloomberg · CNBC