The weekly read — Week of Jul 10 – Jul 17, 2026

Week of Jul 10 – Jul 17, 2026

The take

Commodities rallied 5.7% in the month while emerging equities dropped 11.1%. The year is still shaped by the commodity surge—DBC is up 29.4%—even as fresh Middle East tensions drove the divergence this week. Gold fell 4.2% in the window, down 7.5% year-to-date, as higher rates pressured non-yielding assets.

The week at a glance

• This week — EM stocks fell 5.4%; commodities rallied 5.3% on Iran escalation fears.
• Past 4 weeks — Emerging markets dropped 11.1%; oil and commodities surged on supply worries.
• Year-to-date — Commodities lead at +29.4%; global equities remain mid-single-digit positive.

This week: AI selloff collides with geopolitical oil rally

Emerging-market equities slumped as chip stocks sold off and a key gauge dropped as much as 2.7%, extending losses to 10% from recent bull-market peaks. EEM fell 5.4% while developed ex-US fell 1.8%. Oil rallied sharply; crude traded above $79 per barrel and gained more than 10% for the week as escalating attacks between the US and Iran intensified concerns over supply disruptions, with the US launching strikes against Iran. Broad commodities (DBC) gained 5.3%. Momentum strategies concentrated in emerging equity or commodity sleeves behaved predictably: EEM, the worst asset this week, took 59–101 bps from those holding it, while DBC offset most equity losses.

Past 4 weeks: commodity supply shock widens, equities diverge

Developing-world currencies fell as renewed worries about tensions in the Middle East lifted oil prices, with the dollar gaining and Treasury yields rising as tensions between Iran and the US showed little sign of abating. EEM lost 11.1% over the window; VEA dropped 3.7%. Oil prices rose more than 14% in a week as hostilities intensified and the US reinstated a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz. DBC gained 5.7%. Gold fell 4.2%, hurt by rising rate expectations. Strategies tilted toward commodities captured the shift; those holding equal-weighted EM exposure saw four-week returns lag by 1–2 percentage points relative to strategies with overweight commodity sleeves.

Year-to-date: the commodity story still defines 2026

DBC is up 29.4% year-to-date, the clear leader. VNQ gained 15.2%; EEM returned 13.1%; VEA 11.1%; SPY 9.4%. TLT is flat at –0.7%. Gold trades near $4,038 per ounce, roughly 28% below its January all-time high of $5,595, as elevated US inflation drives Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations; Goldman Sachs revised its year-end 2026 target down to $4,900. Gold is down 7.5% this year. Portfolios with structural commodity exposure—balanced, All-Weather, and dual-momentum sleeves—outperformed classic 60/40; the 12–18% commodity allocations contributed 340–675 bps, more than offsetting bond and gold drag and explaining the YTD ranking.

---

Sources: Bloomberg · Trading Economics · Gold Silver · CNBC