The weekly read — Week of Jul 07 – Jul 14, 2026

Week of Jul 07 – Jul 14, 2026

The take

Commodities surged on renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions this week, while emerging markets stumbled on a four-week view as China underperformed. Gold's 6.4% drop over the past month captures a broader repricing: central banks bought aggressively into weakness—China added 15 tonnes in June alone—even as higher US rate expectations lifted the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Year-to-date, broad commodities and developed ex-US equities lead, reflecting a supply-shock story that still defines 2026.

The week at a glance

• This week — Oil rallied 4.7% on escalating US-Iran strikes; commodities led while gold slid 1.4%.
• Past 4 weeks — Emerging markets fell 4.3% as China lagged; gold dropped 6.4% on hawkish Fed repricing.
• Year-to-date — Commodities and developed ex-US equities up 28% and 12%; portfolios reflect the energy shock.

This week: oil tumbled through June but snapped back 4.7% on Iran strikes

Crude jumped after the US launched fresh strikes against Iran, with Tehran retaliating against US allies including a reported attack on a Kuwaiti offshore drilling platform. DBC—tracking broad commodities—rose 4.68% in five days, adding 99 basis points to the Lean Balanced portfolio and 83 bps to the absolute-momentum sleeve. SPY picked up 0.55%, VEA dropped 0.25%, and EEM slipped 0.08%. Gold fell 1.41% even as China's central bank added 15 tonnes in June at an eight-month low near $4,002 per ounce. Strategies with commodity tilt captured the snap-back; fixed-income duration dragged as long Treasuries shed 56 bps.

Past 4 weeks: emerging markets fell 4.3% as China underperformed

India's BSE SENSEX fell 8.9% year-to-date while China's Shanghai and Hong Kong's Hang Seng posted respective losses of 1.4% and 5.5%. EEM dropped 4.33% over the month, subtracting 68 bps from the absolute-momentum strategy; VEA shed 1.86%. Crude prices surged after the ceasefire agreement was breached on 7-8 July, with Dated trading around $77/bbl after plunging $31/bbl in June to $68/bbl by early July. Gold recorded its steepest quarterly decline since 2013, falling 14.1% between April and June 2026. The month exposed geographic divergence: portfolios tilted toward developed ex-US and commodities fared better than EM-heavy sleeves.

Year-to-date: commodities and developed ex-US equity lead the year's story

DBC is up 27.87% through mid-July, contributing 327 bps to Lean Balanced and 497 bps to the absolute-momentum strategy. VEA—FTSE Developed ex-US—rose 12.49%, and SPY gained 10.63%. Gold's share of global reserve assets rose to approximately 27%, up from around 20% at the end of 2024, surpassing US Treasuries for the first time since 1996. The World Gold Council's survey of 76 institutions found that 89% of reserve managers expect global gold holdings to increase over the next twelve months, with a record 45% planning to add to their own reserves. Long bonds—TLT—remain the drag, down 1.20%, subtracting 33 bps from Lean Balanced. Portfolios with commodity and international equity allocations reflect the supply shock; the year's biggest question is whether central-bank buying floors gold ahead of any Fed pivot.

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Sources: Trading Economics · IEA · Bloomberg · World Gold Council · CNBC