The weekly read — Week of Aug 14 – Aug 21, 2026

Week of Aug 14 – Aug 21, 2026

The take

The year belongs to commodities and emerging markets. Gold rallied 5.4% this week and 13.8% over the past four weeks as Treasury bond-buyback programs and cooling inflation flipped rate-hike odds. Emerging-market equities added 6.0% over four weeks, outpacing the S&P 500's 3.6%. For the year, broad commodities lead at 39.8%, emerging markets at 23.3%.

The week at a glance

• This week — Gold surged 5.4%; Treasury intervention on bonds and softer dollar drove the rally
• Past 4 weeks — Gold +13.8% and EM equities +6.0% led; commodities gained 3.9%
• Year-to-date — Broad commodities +39.8%, emerging markets +23.3% outperformed; tech sector +27.6%

This week: a gold breakout after the US Treasury stepped into the bond market

The US Treasury unexpectedly increased purchases of long-term government debt, which raised questions about Washington's ability to manage borrowing costs and reinforced demand for gold. The metal jumped 5.4%, climbing past $4,600 per ounce for the first time since mid-May. Broad commodities (DBC) rose 4.2%. US equities fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.4%, the Nasdaq 100 down 2.4%, and tech (XLK) down 3.5%. The portfolios that combine commodities, gold, and EM equities — Absolute momentum, All-Weather, Dual Momentum — rose 1.5–1.8%; the strategies with fixed equity allocations slipped 0.6% (Lean 60/40) to 0.8% (Lean Balanced).

Past 4 weeks: gold's best monthly gain since January; EM equities extended their lead

Gold rose 10% in August from near $4,000—its best monthly gain since January, driven by three data prints in one week (jobs, CPI, and PPI) that all came in soft. The probability of a September Fed rate hike collapsed to 33% from 51% a month earlier. Emerging-market equities rose 2.6% last week, the biggest gain since June. Over four weeks, EM added 6.0%, developed ex-US 5.3%, and the S&P 500 3.6%; the Nasdaq 100 matched the S&P at 4.3%, and tech (XLK) at 4.2%. Lean All-Weather (Unlevered) gained 4.6%, Absolute momentum 5.2%, Dual Momentum Pivot5 3.2%; Lean 60/40 returned 2.2%, while Global stocks (VT) managed 4.3%.

Year-to-date: broad commodities up 39.8% define the year's leadership

Broad commodities (DBC) lead the year at 39.8%, driven by oil prices that fell as low as $69 per barrel in early July after a US–Iran memorandum, then surged to $105 by July 23 following renewed attacks on tankers and reduced shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Emerging-market equities gained 23.3%, developed ex-US 18.3%, the S&P 500 12.9%, and tech (XLK) 27.6%. Long-term Treasuries lost 3.3%. Lean All-Weather 15% Vol is up 17.9%; Dual Momentum Pivot5 15% Vol 20.1%; Lean Balanced is up 12.2%; Lean 60/40 7.3%. The mix of defensive and tactical allocations delivered low double-digit returns with shallower drawdowns than pure equity; readers heavy in tech are up more but carried 100–130 bp wider peak-to-trough declines.

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Sources: intellectia.ai · goldsilver.com · tradingeconomics.com · riotimesonline.com · finance.biggo.com · bloomberg.com · eia.gov