The weekly read — Week of Aug 01 – Aug 07, 2026

Week of Aug 01 – Aug 07, 2026

The take

2026 remains a commodity and EM year. This week brought a sharp tech rally—the Nasdaq jumped 5.09%—driven by solid earnings and US-Iran peace optimism. Gold rose 7.25% on the week, its best showing since June, as Hormuz reopening hopes eased inflation concerns and reduced Fed tightening expectations. Year-to-date, commodities are still ahead: DBC is up 29.3%, ahead of SPY's 14.0%.

The week at a glance

• This week — Gold's 7.25% surge led; tech rallied 7.2%; EM stumbled –1.88%.
• Past 4 weeks — Gold and commodities held up; EM and bonds sold off.
• Year-to-date — Commodities, EM and developed-ex-US equity have outrun the S&P 500.

This week: gold surged 7.25% on Hormuz peace optimism and tech rebounded sharply

US-Iran peace talks raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, easing Middle East tensions and oil supply fears. Gold jumped 7.25%, its strongest week since mid-June. Developed ex-US equity rose 3.21%, the S&P 500 gained 3.51%, and the Nasdaq leapt 5.09% in a four-day, $3.5 trillion rally driven by strong earnings. The grounding shows tech's sharpest divergence all year: XLK spiked 7.2%. Gold, global equities and US tech all climbed together—a rare trifecta that powered equal-weight and momentum strategies alike while leaving long-duration bonds (TLT +1.03%) and commodities (DBC –1.83%) behind. Emerging markets fell –1.88% in the week; the four-week number is worse.

Past 4 weeks: a divergent month with gold and commodities up, EM and long bonds down

Gold rose 5.69% and broad commodities 5.05% over four weeks, both holding gains even as EM stocks faced July headwinds from AI skepticism that whipsawed chipmaking hubs. Emerging markets dropped –1.88%, the worst four-week performance of any major sleeve. Long-duration Treasuries (TLT) fell –1.63%. Developed ex-US equity advanced 2.68% and the S&P 500 2.43%. The numbers reveal a pronounced rotation away from rate-sensitive bonds and EM tech toward real assets. Four weeks of selling in EEM and TLT dragged on balanced and All-Weather sleeves, while absolute- and relative-momentum strategies rotated cleanly into the winners.

Year-to-date: commodities and EM still lead; tech caught up this week but remains mid-pack

Broad commodities are up 29.3% year-to-date, emerging markets 20.6%, and developed ex-US equity 17.5%—all ahead of the S&P 500's 14.0%. This week's tech surge narrowed the gap: the Nasdaq is now up 18.0% and XLK 30.9%. Gold sits nearly flat at +0.55% for the year despite this week's rally. Long-duration Treasuries remain underwater at –2.5%. The strategies holding commodity and EM exposure—Lean Balanced, Absolute Momentum TAA, and the Pivot5 variants—are capturing these moves. The year's story is unchanged: a supply shock in oil and base metals has rewarded real-asset tilt, and readers' own tech holdings likely gained more this week than the model portfolios, which hold none.

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Sources: InteractiveCrypto · Yahoo Finance · StockCharts · Bloomberg · CNBC